Charting a different course
All throughout the first half of the year, I was frustrated by a general lack of first-party releases. New games were few and far between, but there was a shining light on the horizon: E3. E3 was going to bring a whole new wave of exclusives that'd set up for one hell of a six month stretch. But, I never let my expectations get out of check. If you read my E3 predictions post, you'd have seen that I only predicted two titles past what was already announced; Super Mario Maker 2, and Star Fox Grand Prix. The latter of which was even a heavily rumored, seemingly confirmed title. I tried to be as realistic as possible, because Nintendo already had several games announced for 2018. It seemed obvious to me that Yoshi would release late summer, Smash Bros. would come in the fall, and Pokemon and Fire Emblem would fill in winter. As such, we'd see just a few more games squeak in to fill up the year. Well, I was wrong. With both Yoshi and Fire Emblem delayed into 2019 and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate pushed to Decemeber, and only Super Mario Party announced during the show, the year looks rather sparce.
But, the sad fact is that there simply isn't much content for the rest of the year. June is an absolutely packed month, especially for me. With Sushi Striker, Mario Tennis Aces, and the Splatoon 2 Octo Expansion, there is a lot of high quality content. That is especially true when the myriad third party and indie games are considered. For me personally, Hollow Knight and Wolfenstein II are equally exciting releases this month. But, the rest of the year looks incredibly barren from a first-party perspective. As you no doubt know, exclusives sell hardware, especially on Nintendo systems. What Nintendo needs now is a strong leader; someone who can come in and get things done. Who better than yours truly? So, let's go month by month and discuss the changes I'd make to improve Nintendo's 2018.
For the purpose of this exercise, I'll be ignoring (almost) every third party title and focusing on only what Nintendo is, or rather, should be, releasing each month. I'm specifically trying to "fix" Nintendo's 2018, not the Switch's 2018 as a whole. So, here are a few ground rules, as I, Abram, the interim President of Nintendo, attempt to course-correct 2018. First, anything still to be released in June, July, and August is set in stone. It is too soon to move those things. That means Mario Tennis Aces, Captain Toad, and the Rabbids DLC are stuck where they are. Second, anything I suggest must be realistic. I can't ask for Metroid Prime 4 to release tomorrow, and Animal Crossing to come out next week. Third, the choices I make need to make relative business sense. So, while I'd love to see a game such as Pikmin 4 release this year, it wouldn't make sense to release it in 2018. As such, finally, my goal is to reshape 2018 in as few moves as possible. So, without further ado, let's begin in July.
July 2018- Captain Toad, Mario Tennis Aces Tournament, Sky Skipper
In July, Nintendo takes a scattershot approach, relying on smaller pieces of content to hold the month up. Captain Toad's release is the big push this month. The game gets a short video in which Nintendo highlights the pick-up-and-play nature of the game, and the sheer amount of new levels. Thirty-one Odyssey levels are added to the game, bringing the total up to 100 puzzles. Sky Skipper gets a similar treatment, in terms of the video. On its release day, an in-depth retrospective on Nintendo's history with arcade games releases on YouTube. This drums up more hype than expected for the previously unreleased arcade title. Mario Tennis Aces gets a strong push for a second month in a row. We hold the monthly character tournament as expected, but to coincide with Sky Skipper and the history of Nintendo as an arcade company, we release the Mario Bros. court from Power Tennis as a free update for Aces. While each event by itself is not particularly groundbreaking, when combined, this month services hardcore fans nicely.
August 2018- Nintendo Direct, WarioWare Gold
The first Thursday of the month, we hold a Nintendo Direct. It does not announce too much, but instead focuses on beefing up the next few months. WarioWare Gold is announced too for Nintendo Switch, cross releasing with the 3DS much like Sushi Striker and Captain Toad. That takes care of the game release for the month. In addition, Super Mario Party's release is moved up to the end of September, thus allowing it to debut alongside the Online Service. We already know that the minigame modes will be online compatible, but now every mode in the game will be playable online with friends. You are unable to play online with strangers. PR speak says that this is because of the importance of camaraderie during a match of Mario Party. The actual reason is that people mass rage-quitting Mario Party is a real possibility, and that could significantly negatively impact the perception of the service.
Then, the Direct runs down the remainder of the NES games launching alongside the Online Service in addition to showcasing how the service works in practice. Splatoon 2 will get another push as well, with a new multiplayer mode launching alongside the Online Service. The final announcement will be an online demo for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in October, exclusive to members of the service. This announcement will be accompanied by the final newcomers in Ultimate, Rex and Pyra. They'd function much like the Ice Climbers. The Direct would become the main focus of the month, with the surprise release of WarioWare Gold being a nice extra for fans.
September 2018- Online Service, Super Mario Party, Splatoon 2 update
Undoubtedly the biggest issue with Nintendo's actual 2018 is the total lack of a game to launch alongside the Online Service. This is a totally baffling decision. Nintendo's solution for online play has already been lambasted for its over complicated, clunky nature. A really solid online title needs to launch alongside it to counter-program the negativity. As such, my 2018 would lean hard into the idea of Super Mario Party being an historic moment for the series. Since Mario Party has never had online up until this point, it would be a fairly big selling point. And, that new Splatoon 2 mode would add some tried and true ammunition in case Super Mario Party isn't enough. All of the month's energy would be put behind launching the Online Service.
October 2018- Starlink: Battle For Atlas, Pokemon Let's Go, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate demo
The only third party game I've decided to talk about is Starlink: Battle for Atlas. The reason being, of course, the Star Fox integration with the title. Pushing this title as a defacto exclusive would only make sense. I find this is a very similar situation to Mario + Rabbids, even though Nintendo doesn't seem to be treating it as such. Considering just how far the Star Fox crossover goes, not putting energy behind this title would be a real shame. I'd essentially bill it as the next evolution in the Star Fox franchise, and a furthering of the relationship between Ubisoft and Nintendo. In addition to this game, the Ulimate tournament for Online members would launch, and would be structured nearly identically to the Mario Tennis Aces demo.
Pokemon Let's Go gets pushed up to October, mainly to get Super Smash Brothers Ultimate in November. When Luigi's Mansion got announced for 3DS, I heard a lot of people saying that cross-releasing Luigi's Mansion on the Switch would cannibalize the holiday. I always found that to be an absolutely ridiculous argument. Launching a budget remake alongside, say, Pokemon Let's Go would've had no effect on sales. They would be servicing different audiences, but releasing two juggernauts next to each other, Pokemon and Smash, would certainly be detrimental to sales. These are both huge, system-selling games that should be spaced apart by a month for maximum effect. This allows Nintendo to dominate two months back to back, without forcing people to choose between buying one or the other at launch. Besides, shuffling the release dates is almost imperative for a better 2018.
Next to the Online Service issue, launching Smash in December is the biggest problem this year faces. Nintendo is targeting 20 million Switches sold this year, but is also launching one of only two killer apps after Black Friday: horrible idea. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate will sell well in December, but it'd sell even better in November, especially in a bundle. Would the promise of Smash Bros. a few weeks after Black Friday still sway some consumers and convince them to purchase a Switch? Sure. But actually having the game on the shelf would be even better. Most likely, this advance in release wouldn't hurt either game. Most titles go gold (as in, are finished) several weeks ahead of launch. So, advancing the release date could possibly cause a bit of a crunch, but it would be in no way significant. Moving Pokemon and Smash back a mere two-to-three weeks would do the trick, and would see significantly higher financial returns. Ideally, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate should launch around September, but that would be unreasonable.
November 2018- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Super Smash Bros. Ulitmate is the entire focus of the month, as expected. In order to push sales as hard as possible, a bundle is launched with the Switch, Smash, one year of Online, and a carrying case for $300. After Pokemon sells as much as possible in October, Ulimate comes in to clean up November. This one-two punch would generate a significant amount of hardware sales. Like it or not, Pokemon and Smash are 2018's only system sellers, so it is necessary to milk as much out of them as possible in order to come anywhere near the projected 20 million consoles sold.
December 2018- Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE
That's right, I think 2018 needs more Wii U ports. As strange as it is for me to say, the bizarrely titled Toyko Mirage Sessions #FE would be a perfect December release. We saw Xenoblade Chronicles 2 do swimmingly last December, so delegating this window to another JRPG would be a great idea. Furthermore, Tokyo Mirage Sessions # FE is a game that could do very well if given a second chance on the Switch. I don't know anything about the game itself, nor do I have any interest in it, but I do know that its sales were abysmal. There is a lot of hyperbole about Wii U games not selling, but Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE actually didn't sell. Especially with the absence of Fire Emblem: The Three Houses this year, I do feel as though there is demand for this title.
While this still isn't an ideal year, it is a whole lot better than what we have right now. The current schedule for the year has several issues, as I've touched on already. There are only two system-selling exclusives, and one is stranded behind peak sales time. In addition, there is a gigantic hole in the calendar that includes the time in which the Online Service is launching. People already dislike the Switch's online, and without a killer app releasing alongside the service, I doubt many minds will be changed. 2018 should've continued the momentum from 2017, and it was totally possible to do so. Nintendo had the right idea last year: steady releases punctuated by three huge titles at regular intervals (Breath of the Wild, Splatoon 2, Super Mario Odyssey) accompanied by key third party and indie releases. It really wouldn't have been that hard to follow up. Even if nothing of Zelda and Mario calibur released, we were set up for a continual drip of games leading up to the payload of Pokemon, Smash Bros, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem. The Yoshi delay in particular throws me for a loop; it looked fairly far along at E3 2017, and well, it's a Yoshi platformer. The wheel isn't really being re-invented here. The Fire Embelm delay makes a bit more sense, especially with how rough Three Houses looked during the E3 showcase. With those two out of the picture, only half of the games we expected are coming, and they're coming as late as possible into 2018.
As I've said before, I'm very excited for Pokemon, Smash Bros, and Mario Tennis. Those are supplemented by myriad indie and third-party titles that I'm dying to get my hands on. JRPG fans, which I'm personally not one of, still have Octopath Traveler and The World Ends With You to look forward to. Capcom is even releasing a new Monster Hunter title which will surely be a hit, even if it is just an English version of a pre-existing Switch game that is an enhanced port of a 3DS title. But, I digress. So, after all is said and done, will the Switch have a bad year overall? Probably not. But, will it have a strong year? Again, probably not. When it's 2019 and we're looking back at the year with Pokemon, Smash Bros, and Mario Tennis on our Switches, will it have been worth it? I'd say yes. But, optics is incredibly important. 2017 was a year where Nintendo was making aggressive plays. 2018 feels like a year where Nintendo isn't making any plays at all. With the high potential for an Online Service debacle at the same time that Nintendo is in a holding pattern, it is very possible that the outlook on the Switch becomes negative. The Switch can weather one bad year, but if 2019 turns sour, we could be in a very unfortunate position. Now, I don't think that 2019 will be a bad year, in fact I'm very optimistic. But, I felt that same way going into 2018.
It is very hard to make up for lost ground late in a console cycle. We've seen that time and time again. It is much easier to steer the Switch right from the beginning, than attempt to re-direct the ship in 2020. It is fascinating to me the way that Nintendo has hardly experienced any repercussions from the community over this E3 Direct. A lot of people are turning a blind eye to the Switch's clear and obvious pitfalls. There's certainly something to be said for the contrast between the Switch and the Wii U. By comparison, the Switch is absolutely terrific. But, when you start holding it up to a slightly more rigorous metric, the Switch isn't doing quite as well. I'll be curious to see when, if ever, this honeymoon period ends. I really liked the Wii U, and I'm enjoying my Switch even more. When all is said and done this will easily be one of my favorite Nintendo consoles. But, that doesn't change the problems at the moment, and I hope they'll somehow be addressed.
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http://gamingtrend.com/author/abram-buehner/
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