Can someone translate this post to Animalese?
One side effect of the Switch returning Nintendo to prominence is an influx of games media attention devoted to the company. Now, the more coverage, in my opinion, the better. However, this sometimes leads to traditionally non-Nintendo pundits throwing out statements that aren't commensurate to reality, simply because they’re not engaged in the Nintendo ecosystem. Perhaps the widest, and most inaccurately, spread statement is that Nintendo has already exhausted their most profitable IP; and short of reusing Mario, Zelda, Smash, and Pokémon, nothing else will sell on the level of 2017’s salvo of first-party titles. Now, the pool is certainly draining on this front; for as much as I love IP such as Star Fox or Metroid, these series do more for the pedigree and library of a Nintendo system than for the bottom line. But, it seems that whenever this conversation about Nintendo's most-profitable IP is once more drummed up (in a seemingly cyclical attempt to cast doom and gloom on the hybrid) a certain ringer is always left out: Animal Crossing.
Believe it or not, Nintendo’s anthropomorphic animal life-sim is one of its biggest franchises. 2013’s Animal Crossing New Leaf has moved a huge 11.94 million units, and its DS predecessor, Wild World, shifted an equally meteoric 11.75 million units. Those numbers place Animal Crossing on parity with The Legend of Zelda’s biggest successes: Breath of the Wild at 11.89 million (and counting), A Link to the Past at 12.71 million, and Ocarina of Time at 13.22 million units. These numbers truly cannot be understated and set Animal Crossing Switch up for huge success. We've seen franchises, from 3D Mario to Xenoblade get an enormous shot in the arm from the Switch, purely because of how engaged the Switch consumer base is. So, I expect Animal Crossing's Switch sales to do circles around its previous numbers. In fact, if I may be so bold as to suggest this--I think that Animal Crossing Switch is the most important Nintendo Switch game of 2019.
My reasoning for such a bold statement is that Animal Crossing magnetizes a new demographic to Nintendo machines. By and large, for as diversified as Nintendo’s stable of IP is, its games appeal chiefly to those with an affinity for the Big N. The other 2019 exclusives, including games such as Luigi's Mansion 3 and Fire Emblem: Three Houses, are aimed at demographics that already have an interest in the Switch. Much like Pokémon, Animal Crossing is one of the rare Nintendo exclusives that pulls in a group of gamers that wouldn’t otherwise own the system because of how much of a departure the series is from other Nintendo titles. The game is inherently more casual than the majority of Nintendo’s first-party fare. Animal Crossing is a game about incremental progression within the confines of a bizarre world. It isn't about action, or story, or even gameplay mechanics. It’s a game about building a life external to your real one; full of hamsters that do Insanity and horses that read books. Animal Crossing is so off the wall and so antithetical to the Switch's most acclaimed games. But, that really is the strength of the series. Animal Crossing is the bluest ocean title this side of Wii Sports, and I don’t mean that to be a pejorative in the slightest. It simply talks to a different group of people than the other tent-poles do, which I think is an asset, and one that will pay great dividends with regards to sales in 2019.
To take my analyst hat off for a moment and speak personally, Animal Crossing Switch is still the most important 2019 title to me. All of Nintendo's exclusives for 2019 will be day-one buys, as I'm interested in everything announced. But, nothing has me quite as anxious to play as Animal Crossing Switch. New Leaf was my first game in the series, and it quickly became one of my favorite games of all time. In fact, I loved it so much that I've gone back and tried the series' past titles including the Japan-exclusive N64 title. Animal Crossing’s unique blend of sim gameplay and Nintendo charm supplemented by incredibly smart and player-empowering design choices really speak to me. From when I first touched the series, playing New Leaf just became routine, hopping on for thirty minutes or so each day. I'd see what was new in my town, work to continually shape it by my hand, and simply relax in my own corner of this bizarre, animal-filled universe. It is an experience equal parts tranquil and addicting, and one that I long to get back to. Since the Switch has launched, I’ve found myself wishing for an Animal Crossing experience to get lost in when life got stressful, and to know that I’m on the precipice of having that outlet back has me hyped in a totally different, yet more potent manner, than the hype that Mario, Zelda, or Smash evoked within me.
With all of that said, this sales potential and my personal hype are all resting upon Animal Crossing Switch actually delivering. And, that is nearly impossible to speculate on considering that outside of a 2019 release window, we don’t know the first thing about the game. My gut says that it will turn out great; as each entry in the series has turned out well, even if some have felt a bit too same-y. At the end of the day, though, I don’t view that as an issue. Animal Crossing is one of those few franchises that has such a unique and well-executed core that all a new entry needs are iterative changes and gameplay additions. If Animal Crossing Switch merely delivers an expanded version of the New Leaf experience with more fleshed out systems, new furniture sets and villagers, and an HD coat of paint, I’ll still be smitten with it.
Actually, I think that a lot is put at stake by changing the core of Animal Crossing too radically; you risk alienating the already vast potential consumer base to try and attract those who aren’t traditionally Animal Crossing fans. Frankly, I don’t think it is worth it. The franchise is so special as it is that stirring the pot is unnecessary. There have only been four Animal Crossing titles, so I don’t personally feel that the series has gone stale at this point. This isn’t a situation akin to Mario or Zelda in which games in those franchises get released every time Miyamoto sneezes. Animal Crossing feels like Smash in this regard; releases are so few and far between, and the formula is so salient that simply polishing it up is enough.
Actually, I think that a lot is put at stake by changing the core of Animal Crossing too radically; you risk alienating the already vast potential consumer base to try and attract those who aren’t traditionally Animal Crossing fans. Frankly, I don’t think it is worth it. The franchise is so special as it is that stirring the pot is unnecessary. There have only been four Animal Crossing titles, so I don’t personally feel that the series has gone stale at this point. This isn’t a situation akin to Mario or Zelda in which games in those franchises get released every time Miyamoto sneezes. Animal Crossing feels like Smash in this regard; releases are so few and far between, and the formula is so salient that simply polishing it up is enough.
So, that all begs the question; when does Animal Crossing Switch release? Selfishly, I’d like it any time before September. I’ll be going off to college this year, and being able to bring a digital, animal-filled home away from home with me would be excellent. But, to speak beyond myself, the release date is a bit nebulous. There isn’t any pattern to past releases; so your guess is as good as mine here. That said, I’m predicting an early Summer release for Animal Crossing. The Summer months are fairly empty on the whole, so giving the game a few months to thrive devoid of much competition seems smart. I don’t think Animal Crossing will be ready earlier than Summer, but at the same time I don’t believe that the game fits at Holiday.
We’d be safe to assume Pokémon is a November release, and I personally envision Metroid Prime 4 being the other headlining Winter release. Slotting Animal Crossing into that mix just seems like a poorly handled release calendar. With that trifecta, I think 2019 would suffer from a 2018-esque back loading issue. Regardless, even if Metroid Prime 4 isn’t a 2019 title, considering that Pokémon and Animal Crossing will be the biggest guns of 2019, separating them by five months or so instead of firing both at once will heighten the sales potential for each, instead of one diluting the other by releasing side-by-side. Cough cough, Let’s Go and Ultimate, cough cough.
With all that said, I’m waiting (somewhat impatiently) for some concrete information on Animal Crossing Switch. I’m hopeful that we’ll see the title in the inevitable January presentation, but even if we don’t, I’d be hard pressed to imagine that the game wouldn’t show its head before E3, considering that a Summer window feels just about right for this title. If we don't see Animal Crossing in January though, I think it is fully possible that the game gets its own mini-Direct, similar those for Smash, ARMS, or Xenoblade. Regardless of what is said and when, I’ll be right there to cover the game, and I couldn’t be happier about it.
With all that said, I’m waiting (somewhat impatiently) for some concrete information on Animal Crossing Switch. I’m hopeful that we’ll see the title in the inevitable January presentation, but even if we don’t, I’d be hard pressed to imagine that the game wouldn’t show its head before E3, considering that a Summer window feels just about right for this title. If we don't see Animal Crossing in January though, I think it is fully possible that the game gets its own mini-Direct, similar those for Smash, ARMS, or Xenoblade. Regardless of what is said and when, I’ll be right there to cover the game, and I couldn’t be happier about it.
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